Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 73.5%
Previsores
75
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 minutos
23/06/25, 03:29 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2030, there is credible reporting from reputable news organizations confirming that Iran has successfully sunk a U.S. Navy ship with a displacement of more than 2000 tons.
- The term "sunk" is defined as causing a U.S. Navy vessel to become submerged and inoperable due to hostile actions attributed to Iran.
- This includes submarines that are sunk.
- If no such incident is reported by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
- Iran has developed a range of naval capabilities aimed at countering U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 512,6 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 9,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 266,5 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 56,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 170,4 mil
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 74% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030? é resolvido?
- Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.
- Como Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria