Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?
One-OffCiênciaHealth & MedicineWeather3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 79%
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Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado5/04/25, 11:57 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria:
- A "YES" outcome requires that a credible source (e.g. a government agency such as the USDA-APHIS) confirms that a free-ranging wild animal in the contiguous United States has been infected by the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax), before January 1st 2027 at 00:00 GMT.
- Infections in humans do not count.
- Similarly, infections in pets, livestock, or otherwise captive or confined animals do not count.
- However, infections in feral animals (such as feral cats) will count.
- An example of what would qualify as a "YES" if it happened again, is the outbreak among deer in the Florida Keys in 2016.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 79% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027? é resolvido?
- Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria: