Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 72.9%
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado29/10/23, 02:14 UTC2/01/30, 06:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
ForecastExRegras
To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that I believe qualify as wild-animal-welfare grants, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
- See this EA Forum tag for a definition of "Wild animal welfare" as a cause area.
- For the purposes of this question, fishing-related interventions are considered farmed-animal welfare.
- "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel.
- This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.
- For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like farmed-invertebrate welfare and climate geoengineering!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!
Mercados abertos
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+65.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-29.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-6.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 622,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 579,5 mil
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+41.0pt99%
- Houston+62.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+4.0pt99%
+19 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+69.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-59.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-10.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes98%
- No2%
- Volume total
- € 108,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 108,2 mil
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- 22°C+72.0pt97%
- 23°C-8.5pt2%
- 24°C-0.8pt1%
+8 mais resultados
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+70.0pt100%
- 21°C or below-0.9pt0%
- 22°C-0.9pt0%
+8 mais resultados
- Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 73% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030? é resolvido?
- Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that I believe qualify as wild-animal-welfare grants, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.