Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualOpus 59%+39.0ptLíder entre 5 opções
Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+39.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 minutos
3/09/26, 14:4831/12/26, 14:45
Tendências
Regras
The current publicly accessible line-up of Claude is Fable 5.1, Opus 5, Sonnet 5, and Haiku 4.5, as seen on https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/models/overview.
- Which tier will be the next to have a model publicly released? By publicly released, I mean Anthropic must announce the public release and the average American can access it just by making an account and spending money.
- If multiple models are released simultaneously, options will resolve to 100% times the proportion of the released models of each tier.
- If Anthropic "rereleases" an old model, I will either ignore that or resolve this N/A and create a new market.
- This market is a sequel to @/JoshSnider/what-tier-will-the-next-public-clau-NN6Q2llP8l , which resolved for Claude Fable 5.1
- [link preview]
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 457,4 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 8,7 mi
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 mais resultados
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 149,2 mil
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de What tier will the next Claude release be??
- A Manifold Markets cota Opus em 59% em 4 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando What tier will the next Claude release be? é resolvido?
- What tier will the next Claude release be? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como What tier will the next Claude release be? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The current publicly accessible line-up of Claude is Fable 5.1, Opus 5, Sonnet 5, and Haiku 4.5, as seen on https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/models/overview.