KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
At least 1520 score 69%+3.0ptLíder entre 8 opções
Qualidade do mercado
64 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
1,3 mil €
Liquidez
44,2 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
3.0 pt
Spread moderadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
26/06/26, 20:00 UTC1/01/27, 15:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
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PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegras
If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1540 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+23.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+24.5pt43%
- Volume total
- € 125,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 55 mil
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.6pt14.3%
+3 mais resultados
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,3 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,4 mi
- Anthropic market share this week
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- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de AI capability growth this year??
- A Kalshi cota At least 1520 score em 69% em 11 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando AI capability growth this year? é resolvido?
- AI capability growth this year? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como AI capability growth this year? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.