Previsão da comunidade atual
Sim 65.7%
Previsores
9
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado27/06/26, 21:53 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if, before 1 Jan 2028, there is either (a) an official Chinese government announcement, regulation, or directive, or (b) reporting from at least two credible outlets, indicating that the Chinese state has imposed a binding restriction, licensing/approval requirement, or prohibition specifically on the public release of open-weight AI models that exceed a defined capability threshold — where the threshold is tied to capability or scale (e.g. training compute, benchmark performance, or a designated "frontier"/high-risk tier).
- The restriction must be conditioned on model capability/scale.
- It does not count if it is merely an extension of existing content-moderation, or security-review rules that apply to AI services regardless of capability, nor if it applies only to closed/API-served models.
- Related: @/SamuelKnoche/will-china-restrict-the-open-releas
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 66% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027? é resolvido?
- Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria: