This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)
FedOne-OffTecnologiaManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 98.5%
Previsores
49
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado30/09/22, 22:16 UTC2/01/50, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
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This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.
- Meta comment: This is another "what is the risk free interest rate" market, but testing a very long time period.
- Based on my calculations about loans, I think that there's still a big difference in opportunity cost between a 1-month investment and a 1-year investment, but there actually seems to be only a tiny difference in opportunity cost between a 1-year investment and a 10-year investment.
- (Assuming it's a small part of your portfolio so it doesn't contribute much to the loan cap).
- This is because the vast majority of your opportunity cost is incurred in the first few months - with 2% of your investment being loaned back to you every day, by 365 days less than 0.01% of your investment is still locked up in the market.
- There's another interesting consideration which is how much the long time frame affects questions like whether you and/or Manifold will still be around, etc. (Note that even if I am hit by a bus, Manifold admins have stated and shown that they usually will resolve popular markets eventually if the author is not responsive.)
Mercados abertos
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-3.0pt44.1%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 34,5 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 2,6 mi
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt54.5%
- No change-3.0pt44.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 mais resultados
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt51%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.6%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt85%
- Before July 2027+5.0pt84%
- Before 202773%
- Volume total
- € 3,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 45,5 mil
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt2%
+10 mais resultados
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No87%
- Yes+3.8pt13%
- Volume total
- € 997 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 41,2 mil
- Fed Decision in October?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 99% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) é resolvido?
- This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2050.
- Como This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.