Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualUnyielding Islamic Regime 34.6%Líder entre 8 opções
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado12/03/26, 03:08 UTC30/06/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Manifold thinks the Iranian regime is in a stronger position on the anniversary of the start of Operation Epic Fury
Manifold MarketsU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by which date?
PolymarketIsrael ground operation in Iran confirmed by which date?
PolymarketWill China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the outcome that best describes Iran's political situation by end of 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by assessing the primary governing structure and power dynamics in Iran as of December 31, 2026, based on credible reporting from international news sources, government statements, and expert analysis.
- the named outcome: The clerical system remains in control with minimal structural change to governance or ideology, effectively no concessions to the coalition or protestors.
- Pre war status quo or even more radicalism.
- Deal with minor concessions: A negotiated settlement between the regime and the coalition/protestors, involving small compromises on nuclear program, sanctions relief, or political reforms, equal to or inferior to the Obama Deal.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 470,8 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 35,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 100,1 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):?
- A Manifold Markets cota Unyielding Islamic Regime em 35% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026): é resolvido?
- Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026): deverá ser resolvido em 30 de junho de 2027.
- Como Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026): é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution Criteria