Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 92%
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 minutos
4/10/26, 16:00 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if there are more than 1,000 officially confirmed or highly suspected cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) linked to the October 2026 Irkutsk outbreak in Russia.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Timeframe: The cutoff date for counting cases is December 31, 2027, or one full month after the WHO or local agencies declare the potential outbreak is no longer a concern without retraction.
- Definition of Cases: Cases must be officially confirmed or classified as suspected by public health agencies, originating from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute incident.
- Sources of Truth: The primary sources of truth will be official updates from the Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) or the World Health Organization (WHO).
