Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 57.7%
Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado6/03/25, 04:48 UTC9/06/69, 10:09 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?
Manifold MarketsWill @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRegras
Same resolution criteria as Martin Randall's market but with every instance of the word '1/3' replaced with the word '1/2'.
- Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of a word:
- A word is defined as a group of consecutive characters surrounded by whitespace.
Mercados abertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 226,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 125,2 mil
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 mais resultados
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,6 mi
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 108,3 mil
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 mais resultados
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 58% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2? é resolvido?
- Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2? deverá ser resolvido em 9 de junho de 2069.
- Como Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Same resolution criteria as Martin Randall's market but with every instance of the word '1/3' replaced with the word '1/2'.