Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
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80
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Desatualizado28/06/23, 02:39 UTC28/10/30, 11:33 UTC
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KalshiRegras
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem
- The Sleeping Beauty problem is a puzzle in decision theory in which whenever an ideally rational epistemic agent is awoken from sleep, they have no memory of whether they have been awoken before.
- Upon being told that they have been woken once or twice according to the toss of a coin, once if heads and twice if tails, they are asked their degree of belief for the coin having come up heads.
- Resolves based on the consensus position of academic philosophers once a supermajority consensus is established.
- Close date extends until a consensus is reached.
- Self-locating belief and the Sleeping Beauty problem, Adam Elga (2000) - https://www.princeton.edu/~adame/papers/sleeping/sleeping.pdf
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 64% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3? é resolvido?
- Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3? deverá ser resolvido em 28 de outubro de 2030.
- Como Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem