Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 69.9%
Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
5/04/24, 14:16 UTC1/01/30, 05:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiRegras
The linked market is set up to extend its closing until consensus is reached in Martin's opinion.
- This market will resolve when 2029 ends.
- Why this market? In my opinion the linked market is quite probably way off.
- If the linked market is likely to resolve, it is worth tracking the market and betting my belief.
- If it "never" will, the market can stay wrong indefinitely, and my expected value is hard to decide.
- Therefore this market, which is more decidable.
Mercados abertos
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
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- Volume total
- € 30,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 18 mil
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- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
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- € 8,7 mil
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- € 7,7 mil
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- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
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- € 952,2
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- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- € 516,1
- Volume 24h
- € 516,1
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volume total
- € 516,1
- Volume 24h
- € 516,1
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 70% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030? é resolvido?
- Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Will @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The linked market is set up to extend its closing until consensus is reached in Martin's opinion.