Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2030-2039 34%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+2.8 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado25/03/25, 01:15 UTC1/01/00, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
Resolution Criteria:
- For a given date to be resolved to YES at least one of the following must occur:
- The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 50% or higher
- The labor force participation rate drops by 50% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%.
- This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week.
- If that number goes from 40 hours/week to 20 hours/week or less that will not matter to the resolution of this question.
Mercados abertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 90,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,5 mi
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 358,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 35,8 mil
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 548,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 29,8 mil
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,7 mil
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 17,7 mil
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-2.0pt22%
- Volume total
- € 310,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 6,5 mil
- Recession this year?
- CPI in September
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In what year will Al take 50% of human jobs??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2030-2039 em 34% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In what year will Al take 50% of human jobs? é resolvido?
- In what year will Al take 50% of human jobs? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2100.
- Como In what year will Al take 50% of human jobs? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution Criteria: