Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualUkraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia 60.4%Líder entre 6 opções
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683
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Variação 7d
-0.1 pts
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Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado2/07/23, 09:32 UTC31/12/29, 22:59 UTC
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Trying to predict the longer-term outcome of the conflict using 2030 as a cut off date sufficiently in the future hopefully.
- There is a good chance that Russia and Ukraine disagree about the border.
- For example, Ukraine has not accepted the Crimea annexion in 2014.
- Instead defacto control is sufficient for resolution but it requires 6 months of cease-fire (if not peace).
- The current goal of Ukraine is Pre-2014 border, i.e. Crimea is part of Ukraine again.
- The current goal of Russia is that Ukraine gives more territory to Russia than Crimea, e.g. Luhansk and Donetsk.
