Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 64.4%
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14
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado21/07/25, 20:16 UTC2/01/45, 07:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Copying from Caplan's blog post:
- Holden wins $5000 if, by the end of 2044, there has been at least one year for which it is plausible — according to Bryan Caplan — that at least one of the following was true:
- Real Gross World Product was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at least 4x the real GWP of 2024.
- Or: real GWP was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at most 1/2 the real GWP of 2024.
- Otherwise, Bryan wins $1000.
