In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
One-OffSociedade e cultura13aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 84.4%
Previsores
22
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado4/03/22, 01:28 UTC11/03/40, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the next “Contest” or “Prizes” announced by Open Philanthropy?
Manifold MarketsWill Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsBryan Caplan wins Feast-or-Famine AI Bet with Holden Karnofsky?
Manifold MarketsBozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026
KalshiWill the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?
Manifold MarketsRegras
For the purposes of this question, something is a "tragic mistake" if it seems so from the perspective of Karnosfky in 2040.
- So if rapid spending seemed the best course of action in expectation to Karnofsky_2022 but Karnofsky_2040 disagrees, this question resolves positively.
- If a question is later created on Metaculus to firm up tricky edge cases, I'll probably use those resolution criteria for this question as well.
- This question will resolve to either 0% or to 100% if Karnofsky makes any unambiguous statements on the topic, or to my own best judgment of what he actually thinks if he is being evasive.
- Close date updated to 2040-03-10 11:59 pm
