AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?
Política comercialOne-OffSaúde e medicinaChinaEuropa13a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 78.5%
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3
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binary
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Atualizado há 7 minutos
2/11/25, 19:29 UTC31/12/39, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that before January 1st 2040 the global innovative drug market has functionally bifurcated into at least two major regional “stacks” (e.g., US/EU as one region, China as another; India may count as a third), such that each region routinely develops and approves distinct, non‑identical, domestically discovered (AI‑assisted) drugs for the same first‑line indications, without a unified global launch.
- Operational criteria (any two of A–C must be met):
- A. Region‑specific analogs: In ≥3 major therapeutic areas (e.g., oncology, metabolic/obesity, autoimmune), ≥2 major regions each have an approved first‑line medicine for the same indication that:
- is a different molecule/biologic (not a generic/biosimilar of the other);
- was discovered/designated AI‑assisted by the sponsor (per regulator filings, company disclosures, or peer‑reviewed sources); and
- remains unapproved in the other region(s) for ≥24 months after the first approval (no global “catch‑up” launch in that window).