Quais são as probabilidades atuais de (5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027??

A Manifold Markets cota Shutdown 2 em 46.3% em 27 de outubro de 2026.

(5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Shutdown 2 46.3%

Líder entre 5 opções

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Variação 7d

0.0 pts

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 5 horas

Desatualizado

27/08/26, 20:07 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

This market uses a nonstandard mechanism that multiplies the odds of the underlying event by 5x.

Please read the full description before trading.
For fairness, and because of the nonstandard mechanism, I will not trade on any market in this Set.
The reason I made this mechanism is because I noticed that due to the multiplier mechanism other multiplied odds markets tend to have their results N/A, which reverts all trades on the market, this means there is no reward for trading information even if the market does resolve correctly.
This way all 5 of the markets should always have the same odds, and for one of them trades on it will not revert.
There is no mechanism to force trading on all 5 markets, which means they can (but shouldn't) separate.