Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 64.1%
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado24/07/26, 15:49 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if at least two (2) of the top five (5) AI models ranked on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) general leaderboard are open-weight or open-source as of December 31, 2027.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Primary Source: The official Epoch Capabilities Index leaderboard at epoch.ai/benchmarks/eci.
- Top 5 Ranking: Ranking is determined by the ECI general capabilities score.
- If multiple sizes or post-training variants of the same model series are listed (e.g., a base version and an instruct version, or different parameter sizes of the same model line), only the single highest-scoring version will be counted toward the top 5.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 132,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 100,3 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 322,4 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 64% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI) é resolvido?
- 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI) deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria