Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 75.1%
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Desatualizado24/07/26, 03:01 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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It seems that OpenAI has acquired The Sauce, letting them make models that are cracked at not only finding vulnerabilities, but at exploiting them, too.
- Will the feared come to pass? Will the weights of a model with Mythos-level exploitation abilities (such that anyone with an abliteration tool and a GPU cluster can use them to hack into 2025-era software) be released to the public before the end of 2027?
- (simply scoring high on cyber benchmarks doesn't count; the models must be good at exploiting vulnerabilities in realistic settings to the point where we have stories of the model producing root-granting binaries and such)
- (if the capabilities are latent in the weights but are obfuscated by refusals or surface-level unlearning, then this still resolves YES, although I'd want to wait to see if someone actually elicits them)
- (if the capabilities aren't in the weights (like by gradient routing) but they are present in a private API version of the model, then this resolves NO)
- Update 2026-08-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The model must achieve scores close to or higher than Mythos 5 on both ExploitBench and ExploitGym.
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 75% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027? é resolvido?
- Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: It seems that OpenAI has acquired The Sauce, letting them make models that are cracked at not only finding vulnerabilities, but at exploiting them, too.