Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027?
IAOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 50.5%
Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado12/08/26, 15:59 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold Markets2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)
Manifold MarketsTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpen Source market share on Sep 10th
KalshiRegras
Within a year we might get open source models with the cyber capabilities of Mythos.
- One possible way to release such a model without causing a cyber apocalypse would be to differentially reduce cyber capabilities in the released weights of the model (like Anthropic did that one time for Opus)
- For example they could do this and then withhold the cyber-capable modules from the public https://alignment.anthropic.com/2026/modular-pretraining/
- Unlearning has to be robust, but that sounds hard to judge, so I'll err on the side of YES and so if it's unclear whether the unlearning is robust then the market resolves YES, but if the unlearning is obviously not robust (someone publicly restores capabilities, company says they literally just did GradDiff, etc) then the market resolves NO.
- Capabilities have to actually be dangerous.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 132,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 100,3 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 322,4 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 51% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027? é resolvido?
- Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Within a year we might get open source models with the cyber capabilities of Mythos.