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Dados de 8 de set. de 2026, 22:05 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidade implícita atual
September 30 50%
Qualidade do mercado
30 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Liquidez
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Liquidez desconhecidaDados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
25/08/26, 14:01 UTC1/10/26, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsRegras
the named outcome · the named outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran.
A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met.
- A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement.
- Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.
Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement.
- Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify.
- A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.
Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves.
- Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
- Também disponível em Polymarket — US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? · September 30 6%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date??
- A Limitless cota September 30 em 50% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date? é resolvido?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de outubro de 2026.
- Como US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date? é liquidado?
- A Limitless liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: the named outcome · the named outcome. <p>This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.</p><p><br></p><p>A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran.</p><p><br></p><p>A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.</p><p><br></p><p>All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met.
- Onde mais US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em Polymarket.