Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
US PoliticsGeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle East1mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 79%
Previsores
33
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado3/04/26, 17:21 UTC5/11/26, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketHow many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves YES if BOTH conditions are met before November 3, 2026:
- Formal agreement: A ceasefire, armistice, or peace agreement is signed by authorized representatives of both the US and Iranian governments.
- Operational cessation: Active military operations (airstrikes, ground combat, naval engagements) between US and Iranian forces have ceased for 14 or more consecutive days.
- Both conditions must be confirmed by at least two of: AP, Reuters, AFP, BBC, or NYT.
- Resolves NO if active hostilities are ongoing or no formal agreement exists as of November 3, 2026.
- Context: The US-Israel war against Iran began February 28, 2026.
Mercados abertos
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 605,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 714,8 mil
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.5%
- September 30-2.0pt13%
+17 mais resultados
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 54,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 295,4 mil
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.1pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt14%
+48 mais resultados
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 mais resultados
- What will Trump say during his remarks at Steel Across America?
- $LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 79% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections? é resolvido?
- Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections? deverá ser resolvido em 5 de novembro de 2026.
- Como Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if BOTH conditions are met before November 3, 2026: