Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
PolíticaOne-OffGeopolíticaMiddle EastUS Politics3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 54.9%
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binary
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 minutos
28/02/26, 16:48 UTC1/01/27, 23:59 UTC
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Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
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Resolution criteria
- The US and Iran will be considered at war if military hostilities between the two nations are actively occurring on January 1st, 2027.
- This includes direct combat operations, sustained military strikes, or active armed conflict.
- Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile attacks on US military bases and Israel following the February 28, 2026 US and Israeli military strikes on Iran constitute evidence of active warfare.
- The market resolves YES if military operations continue through January 1st, 2027.
- The market resolves NO if a ceasefire, peace agreement, or cessation of hostilities has been established before that date, or if no active military conflict exists on that date.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 55% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027? é resolvido?
- Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria