Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoGeopolíticaEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 20263m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualOther 49.2%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado21/01/25, 06:12 UTC1/02/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Earlier this week, Split Ticket released their 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model for the 2024 US Election.
- This model measures how well a candidate outperformed "controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money", and is intended to be a barometer for candidate quality in Congressional races in both the House and the Senate.
- For this market, I will only consider those who win their races (whether incumbent or not).
- 2024's top performers were Dusty Johnson (R|SD-AL) at 9.93, Angus King (I/D|ME-SEN) at 9.78, and Amy Klobuchar (D|MN-SEN) at 8.47.
- Feel free to add your own answers, however please follow the format established and do not add any duplicates.
- 2024 House WAR
