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Dados de 14 de nov. de 2026, 04:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Ponto médio do livro selecionado
Before Jan 1, 2031 · —
A carregar o livro selecionado…
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Preço registado
Before Jan 1, 2031 78.5%Líder entre 5 opções
Before Jan 1, 2031 78.5%Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Contratos em aberto
5,2 mil US$
Contratos em aberto: médioCompra / Venda
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Before Jan 1, 2031Spread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 29 minutos
22/07/26, 15:35 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · Before Jan 1, 2031
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Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
What will Kevin Warsh say during his December press conference?
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Manifold MarketsRegras
If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kevin Warsh must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Regras de cada resultado
- Before Jan 1, 2031
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2030
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
- Também disponível em Polymarket — Warsh out as Fed Chair by…? · June 30, 2027 6%
