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  • Início
  • MercadosMercados de Previsão
  • Arena
  • Painel de Controle
  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?
Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?

Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?

1.0% (24h)One-OffRussia / UkraineEurope6m
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim
Sim 19%+1.0%
Qualidade do mercado

44 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

0,1 €

Liquidez

5,4 €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

18.0% / 19.0%

Spread

5.6%

Spread moderado
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 8 minutos

4/05/26, 19:301/01/27, 4:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes19%

Regras

If the European Union agrees to or announces that Ukraine will receive a Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status means any formal EU-approved pre-accession status or arrangement, however described, that allows Ukraine to sit in, attend, observe, or be represented at meetings of EU ministers, EU leaders, or EU institutions without voting rights before Ukraine becomes a full EU Member State.
  • Candidate-country status, accession negotiations, EU-law screening, funding access, or Ukraine’s existing EU Association Agreement shall not qualify unless Ukraine receives new non-voting participation or representation rights in EU ministerial, leaders’, or institutional meetings.
  • An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
  • Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
  • Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.

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Regras

If the European Union agrees to or announces that Ukraine will receive a Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status means any formal EU-approved pre-accession status or arrangement, however described, that allows Ukraine to sit in, attend, observe, or be represented at meetings of EU ministers, EU leaders, or EU institutions without voting rights before Ukraine becomes a full EU Member State.
  • Candidate-country status, accession negotiations, EU-law screening, funding access, or Ukraine’s existing EU Association Agreement shall not qualify unless Ukraine receives new non-voting participation or representation rights in EU ministerial, leaders’, or institutional meetings.
  • An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
  • Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
  • Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.