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Dados de 5 de nov. de 2026, 11:43 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Ponto médio do livro selecionado
Before 2029 · —
A carregar o livro selecionado…
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Preço registado
Before 2029 17%
Before 2029 17%Qualidade do mercado
40 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Contratos em aberto
2,7 mil US$
Contratos em aberto: médioCompra / Venda
— / —
Before 2029Spread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
16/09/26, 17:00 UTC1/01/28, 04:59 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · Before 2029
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?
KalshiWill Canada become an EU Associate Member by year-end 2027?
PredictItWill Brittany gain independence from France before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next Thuringian state election?
Manifold MarketsWill a nation in Europe which is not currently a full UN member state gain that status by 2035.
Manifold MarketsRegras
If Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. An equivalent status must be expressly presented by Canada and the EU as the institutional arrangement contemplated by the EU's Canadian associate-membership proposal. Both sides must sign or formally adopt the same agreement. Full EU membership, ratification, and entry into force are not required. Proposals, invitations, statements of intent, negotiations, or action by only one side do not qualify. Existing or sector-specific trade, defence, research, or mobility arrangements alone do not qualify.
Regras de cada resultado
- Before 2029
- If Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2028
- If Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
- Também disponível em Polymarket — Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...? · June 30, 2027 28%
