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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will new tariffs become law?
Will new tariffs become law?

Will new tariffs become law?

One-OffTrade PolicyPolíticaEleição20d
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Before Jul 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026 3%
Qualidade do mercado

24 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidez

22,5 €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

1.0% / 2.9%

Spread

190.0%

Spread amplo
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 3 minutos

20/02/26, 22:001/07/26, 14:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Before Jul 1, 20263%

Regras

If any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
  • Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No.
  • Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
  • Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage.

Mercados Relacionados

Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?

Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?

0,4 €
Sim: 20%KalshiKALSHI
Will Trump lower beef tariffs?

Will Trump lower beef tariffs?

0,2 €
Before Jul 1, 2026: 9%KalshiKALSHI
Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?

Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?

0 €
Global: 2%KalshiKALSHI
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

891,5 €
Sim: 1%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

177,9 €
Sim: 4%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

776,9 €
June 30: 9%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

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Regras

If any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
  • Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No.
  • Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
  • Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage.