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Gegevens van 9 sep 2026, 10:40 UTC · beleid pm-quality-3
Huidige impliciete kans
June 30, 2027 11%
Marktkwaliteit
≤49 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
—
Liquiditeit
€ 70,5K
Hoge liquiditeitBied / Laat
3.4% / 3.7%
Spread
0.3 pt
Strakke spreadReacties
0
7d wijziging
+0.3 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 minuten geleden
24 jul 26, 15:51 UTC1 jul 27, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Macrogevoelige Assets
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsPredicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
PolymarketKevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
KalshiRegels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States.
- Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position.
- Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
- Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Open markten
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt44.7%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 34,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,2 mln.
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt53%
- No change-2.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 543,5K
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt90.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+1.0pt8.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)2%
+10 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 44,4 mln.
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date??
- Polymarket prijst June 30, 2027 op 11% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date? afgewikkeld?
- Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date? wordt naar verwachting op 1 juli 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date? afgewikkeld?
- Polymarket wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.