Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 98%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 16 uur geleden
Verouderd6 jan 26, 00:47 UTC1 jan 27, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiPredicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
PolymarketDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsWarsh out as Fed Chair by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
KalshiRegels
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
Open markten
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt44.7%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 34,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,2 mln.
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt53%
- No change-2.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 543,5K
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt90.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+1.0pt8.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)2%
+10 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 44,4 mln.
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 98% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.