Huidige impliciete kans
Kevin Warsh 95%Koploper van 9 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit
≤49 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
—
Liquiditeit
€ 6,4K
Gemiddelde liquiditeitSpread
2.7 pt
Gematigde spreadReacties
0
7d wijziging
-0.1 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 minuten geleden
20 jan 26, 13:29 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
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Macrogevoelige Assets
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
KalshiDouble digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?
Manifold MarketsKevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?
Manifold MarketsKevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
KalshiWarsh out as Fed Chair by which date?
PolymarketFed rate cut before 2027?
KalshiRegels
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
- This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
- The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
- Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Open markten
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 35 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt2.4%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.4pt2%
+10 extra uitkomsten
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.6pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.1pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt2%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed Decision in December?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair?
- Polymarket prijst Kevin Warsh op 95% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair afgewikkeld?
- Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair afgewikkeld?
- Polymarket wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.