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Nee 61.8%
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11
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd16 jul 24, 19:45 UTC31 dec 26, 18:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
PolymarketVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
PolymarketMajor volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiWill any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
Manifold MarketsMount Spurr significant eruption by date?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolves according to Wikipedia article.
- Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that:
- A mention of the eruption in the volcano's own Wikipedia article is sufficient.
- The Wikipedia page "List of volcanic eruptions in the 21st century" is also a key source, as such eruptions are typically listed there.
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 230,8K
- 24u volume
- € 77,1K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 109,5K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,9K
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 62% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves according to Wikipedia article.