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  1. Voorspellingsmarkten
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  3. Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

One-OffWetenschapWeather6mnd
PolymarketPolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kosten
Huidige impliciete kans
Ja
Ja 8%
Marktkwaliteit

24 / 100

Lage kwaliteit
24u volume

€ 0

Liquiditeit

€ 75,8

Lage liquiditeit
Bied / Laat

5.0% / 10.0%

Spread

100.0%

Brede spread
7d wijziging

+0.5%

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 3 minuten geleden

21 apr 26, 19:4131 dec 26, 0:00

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

Yes8%

Regels

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
  • This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
  • If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
  • If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.

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Actief in deze onderwerpen

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Regels

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
  • This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
  • If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
  • If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.