PolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
Nee 95%
Marktkwaliteit
42 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
—
Liquiditeit
€ 441,6
Lage liquiditeitBied / Laat
1.3% / 7.9%
Spread
6.6 pt
Brede spreadReacties
4
7d wijziging
-0.1 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 minuten geleden
21 apr 26, 19:35 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
PolymarketEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?
Manifold MarketsMajor volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiRegels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
- If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
- If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 230,8K
- 24u volume
- € 77,1K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 109,5K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,9K
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026??
- Polymarket prijst No op 95% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Polymarket wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.