Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

0.5 ptn (24u)WeatherOne-OffWetenschap8mnd

PolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerd

Huidige impliciete kans

Nee 96%+0.0pt

Marktkwaliteit

70 / 100

Gemiddelde kwaliteit

24u volume

€ 259,2

Liquiditeit

€ 8,7K

Gemiddelde liquiditeit

Bied / Laat

4.0% / 4.8%

Spread

0.8 pt

Strakke spread

7d wijziging

-0.5 pts

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 5 minuten geleden

29 dec 25, 23:2531 mrt 27, 0:00

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies

Gekozen uitkomst

Yes4%

Inzet (USDT)

Regels

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Volumetrend

$295

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Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

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Natural Disaster in 2026?

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Regels

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

0.5 ptn (24u)WeatherOne-OffWetenschap8mnd

PolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerd

Huidige impliciete kans

Nee 96%+0.0pt

Marktkwaliteit

70 / 100

Gemiddelde kwaliteit

24u volume

€ 259,2

Liquiditeit

€ 8,7K

Gemiddelde liquiditeit

Bied / Laat

4.0% / 4.8%

Spread

0.8 pt

Strakke spread

7d wijziging

-0.5 pts

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 5 minuten geleden

29 dec 25, 23:2531 mrt 27, 0:00

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies

Gekozen uitkomst

Yes4%

Inzet (USDT)

Regels

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

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$295

3 jul25d aan data28 jul

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POLYMARKET

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KALSHI

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€ 1,3K

Ja: 5%

KALSHI

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

€ 386,3

Ja: 43%

KALSHI

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

€ 0

Ja: 4%

POLYMARKET

Natural Disaster in 2026?

€ 24,8

Ja: 21%

POLYMARKET

Actief in deze onderwerpen

BitcoinBTC$63,357.27-2.61%

EthereumETH$1,880.67-3.18%

SolanaSOL$73.44-3.68%

XRPXRP$1.06-3.95%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0699-3.90%

BNBBNB$566.19-1.10%

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Crypto is the canary in the coal mine for the quantum computing threat, experts sayCoindesk

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Regels

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.