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  3. Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

One-OffWetenschap9mnd
PolymarketPolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kosten
Huidige impliciete kans
Ja
Ja 10%
Marktkwaliteit

40 / 100

Lage kwaliteit
24u volume

€ 0

Liquiditeit

€ 5,8K

Gemiddelde liquiditeit
Bied / Laat

9.0% / 10.0%

Spread

11.1%

Brede spread
7d wijziging

-1.5%

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 1 minuut geleden

29 dec 25, 23:2731 mrt 27, 0:00

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

Yes10%

Regels

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
  • Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
  • If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
  • Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

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Actief in deze onderwerpen

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Regels

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
  • Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
  • If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
  • Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.