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  3. How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0.1% (24u)One-OffWetenschap9mnd
PolymarketPolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kosten
Huidige impliciete kans
0
0 70%+4.0%
Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit

44 / 100

Lage kwaliteit
24u volume

€ 1,8

Liquiditeit

€ 11,5K

Gemiddelde liquiditeit
Bied / Laat

0.5% / 1.6%

Spread

220.0%

Brede spread
7d wijziging

+0.2%

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 2 minuten geleden

2 jan 26, 18:5631 mrt 27, 0:00

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

070%

Regels

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
  • Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
  • If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
  • Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
  • Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

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Regels

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
  • Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
  • If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
  • Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
  • Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.