PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPunto medio del book selezionato
Anthropic · —
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Riferimento salvato
Anthropic 56%
Anthropic 56%Qualità del mercato
40 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Liquidità
494,6 €
Bassa liquiditàOpen interest
281,3 USD
Bid / Ask
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AnthropicSpread
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Commenti
0
Variazione 7g
-3.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
18 set 26, 16:42 UTC1 gen 28, 04:59 UTC
Il grafico e le variazioni mostrano probabilità storiche salvate, non il book selezionato in tempo reale.
Trend
Riga selezionata: punto medio del book. Altre righe: riferimenti salvati, eventualmente normalizzati; le variazioni a 24h usano lo storico salvato.
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Polymarket
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Ordine minimo (quote):
- 5
- Incremento di prezzo:
- 1 punti percentuali
- Commissioni:
- Sì
Principali detentori
Caricamento dei principali detentori
Profondità di mercato · Anthropic
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
KalshiOpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by which date?
PolymarketSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsIf GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so.
- This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
- If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
- A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
- Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements.
- Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution.