KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPunto medio del book selezionato
Before Jan 1, 2029 · —
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Prezzo registrato
Before Jan 1, 2029 69%In testa tra 3 esiti
Before Jan 1, 2029 69%Qualità del mercato
37 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Open interest
1,2K USD
Open interest bassoBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2029Spread
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
17 set 26, 04:00 UTC31 dic 26, 18:59 UTC
Il grafico e le variazioni mostrano probabilità storiche salvate, non il book selezionato in tempo reale.
Trend
Riga selezionata: punto medio del book. Altre righe: riferimenti salvati, eventualmente normalizzati; le variazioni a 24h usano lo storico salvato.
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Profondità di mercato · Before Jan 1, 2029
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketIf GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
Manifold MarketsSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
PolymarketRegole
If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The statement must describe an achieved capability in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, prompt, skill, or benchmark-only improvements do not qualify. Humans may provide high-level goals, resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or technical solution. The capability must be affirmatively described as currently achieved in an official company communication or by an executive or research leader speaking about the company's capabilities. Future plans, speculation, offhand remarks, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims do not qualify. A public release, named model, technical demonstration, or independent verification is not required.
Regole per ogni esito
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.