When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
IAOne-Off8aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore 2035 78.8%In testa tra 10 esiti
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6
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Variazione 7g
+0.5 pts
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Aggiornato 46 minuti fa
In ritardo30 lug 25, 15:46 UTC1 gen 35, 16:44 UTC
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KalshiRegole
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
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- 325K €
- Volume 24h
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]?
- Manifold Markets quota Before 2035 al 79% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]?
- When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2035.
- Come viene liquidato When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: As reported by OpenAI.