Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore H2 2030 81.4%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto30 lug 25, 15:41 UTC30 lug 28, 15:31 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWill a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketWill OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
KalshiOpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by which date?
PolymarketWhen will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?
Manifold MarketsRegole
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.