When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

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Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Before Dec 2035 88.7%

In testa tra 10 esiti

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multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

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Variazione 7g

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Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 2 ore fa

Obsoleto

28 feb 26, 01:48 UTC1 gen 36, 06:59 UTC

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Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them.

Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself.
Independently verified.
Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months).
Also submitted to Metaculus.

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When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

IA BaseballOne-Off9a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Before Dec 2035 88.7%

In testa tra 10 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Variazione 7g

0.0 pts

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 2 ore fa

Obsoleto

28 feb 26, 01:48 UTC1 gen 36, 06:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself.
Independently verified.
Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months).
Also submitted to Metaculus.

Segnala un problema di dati su questo mercato

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Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each??: Manifold Markets quota Before Dec 2035 al 88.7% al 26 settembre 2026.
Quando si risolve When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each??: When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2036.
Come viene liquidato When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each??: Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them.

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When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

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