PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 93%+0.9pt
Qualità del mercato
32 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
55 €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
1.0% / 12.9%
Spread
11.9 pt
Spread ampioCommenti
0
Variazione 7g
-8.1 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
21 ago 26, 15:48 UTC1 ott 26, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Eric Swalwell be elected the next Governor of California?
Manifold MarketsWill Eric Swalwell win the California general election for Governor in 2026?
ForecastExEric Swalwell charged by September 30?
PolymarketFlávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?
PolymarketWill Phoebe Gates be arrested by September 30?
PolymarketWill Eric Swalwell be behind bars on Election Day 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercati aperti
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+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
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- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Eric Swalwell arrested by September 30??
- Polymarket quota No al 93% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Eric Swalwell arrested by September 30??
- Eric Swalwell arrested by September 30? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Eric Swalwell arrested by September 30??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.