Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 90%
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 57 minuti fa
In ritardo24 mar 25, 15:41 UTC24 mar 35, 15:34 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold Markets2026 World GDP Growth
PolymarketCPI YoY in November
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if the world GDP grows by an order of magnitude (10x increase) within a 10-year period from market creation.
- It will resolve to "No" if:
- There is insufficient growth for the world GDP to have at least doubled by the end of the 10-year period, OR
- At the end of the 10-year period, the world GDP has not increased by a factor of 10 from its starting value.
- An order of magnitude increase means the world GDP would need to grow by a factor of 10 (1000%).