Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?
CriptoOne-OffMacro & EconomyEconomia4aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 69.8%
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto14 apr 26, 20:06 UTC31 mar 31, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsBefore Jan 1, 2027, US home prices will at some point be 20% lower than today, as measured by Case Schiller index
Manifold MarketsUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PolymarketUS GDP growth in Q3 2026
FutuurJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
KalshiRegole
This question will resolve to YES if there is at least one year during which the real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak GDP level, and NO otherwise.
- The condition that real GDP reaches a new peak level is to ensure that recovery from a recession does not trigger positive resolution.
- For example, if the GDP series was [1.0, 0.85, 1.02] this question would not resolve positively, because the greatest growth over the sequence was only 2% as measured from a prior peak.
- This question will rely on credible estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and in case there is uncertainty over whether real GDP grew by at least 10%, will wait until a final report is obtained.
- If the BEA is not active during resolution, or does not publish a relevant report, another credible source will be chosen at my sole discretion.
Mercati aperti
CryptoKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 9pm EDT?
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 566,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 548,4K €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.2pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 altri esiti
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.7pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 12,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7K €
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 70% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak??
- Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 marzo 2031.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This question will resolve to YES if there is at least one year during which the real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak GDP level, and NO otherwise.