Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 71.9%
Previsori
57
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto29 set 22, 15:45 UTC1 gen 40, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a theory of everything be found this century?
Manifold MarketsWill the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_everything
- In order for a theory to qualify, it has to have been extensivly tested and have a strong consensus in its favor.
- It also must explain everything fundamental that is in principle explainable.
- (It doesn't have to answer philosophical questions like "why is there something rather than nothing", since that may not be answerable.) In other words, there shouldn't be any physics question where we would not know how to compute an answer.
- (Even if the computation itself would take a very long time.)
- There will of course be many emergent phenomena that we still don't have good models for.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 226,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 108,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 altri esiti
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 72% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040??
- Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2040.
- Come viene liquidato Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_everything