Previsione della comunità attuale
No 87.8%
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto15 gen 25, 15:23 UTC22 gen 30, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a theory of everything be found this century?
Manifold MarketsWill a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegole
There has been some recent media chatter about the Timescape theory, because of this new paper: https://academic.oup.com/mnrasl/article/537/1/L55/7926647
- News coverage: https://theconversation.com/huge-if-true-dark-energy-doesnt-exist-claims-new-study-on-supernovas-246674 https://www.thequantumcat.space/p/the-week-in-space-and-physics-timescapes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoDPPuhASGw
- By 2030, will a majority of cosmologists assign more than a 30% credence to a Timescape style theory?
- By Timescape style, I mean: - Rejecting the cosmological constant or dark energy - Rejecting the cosmological principle
- It should be pretty clear but if not I'll try to email some people, and for good beasure I won't bet on this market
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 226,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 108,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 altri esiti
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 88% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists??
- Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists? dovrebbe risolversi il 22 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: There has been some recent media chatter about the Timescape theory, because of this new paper: https://academic.oup.com/mnrasl/article/537/1/L55/7926647