Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 50.6%
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347
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto7 dic 23, 22:20 UTC1 mar 30, 22:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill anyone sucessfully redteam creation of smallpox before 2028?
Manifold MarketsAnother pneumonic plague case in Russia by which date?
PolymarketWill a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1?
Manifold MarketsPlague declared public health emergency by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030
- MOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor)
- This market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI? as its baseline.