Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 50.6%
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3
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto1 ago 26, 16:23 UTC1 mar 30, 22:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will we get AGI before 2030?
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PolymarketRegole
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030
- MOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor)
- This market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI? as its baseline.
Mercati aperti
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 231K €
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt7%
- September 30,+0.1pt1%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhere will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
- No meeting before 2027+0.5pt91.2%
- Qatar / UAE+0.3pt2%
- Switzerland-0.3pt2%
+11 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Volume totale
- 576,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 56,9K €
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–339+0.5pt37.1%
- 340–354-2.0pt24.7%
- 310–324-2.6pt19.6%
POLYMARKETWhere will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- China-1.0pt54.9%
- No meeting by December 31-2.0pt33.3%
- Gulf country+1.4pt3.9%
+12 altri esiti
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- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will we get AGI before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 51% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will we get AGI before 2030??
- Will we get AGI before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 marzo 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will we get AGI before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.