Will a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1?
Russia / UcrainaOne-OffSalute e medicina26gManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 87.1%
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
5 ott 26, 01:53 UTC31 ott 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?
KalshiWill the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
Manifold MarketsMore than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?
KalshiConfirmed pneumonic plague case in Russia by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if a person outside Irkutsk Oblast is credibly reported as infected with the illness from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute cluster before the end of October PT.
- I will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
- The case must be epidemiologically linked to the cluster, for example through contact with a known case or travel from Irkutsk.
- I will give some time for the reports to be confirmed.
- If the consensus of credible reporting shifts and the case is confirmed to not be related, then that won't count for YES.
- The date used for resolution is the first credible report (not supposedly when they are infected).