Will the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
Russia / UcrainaOne-OffSalute e medicina2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 86.1%
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21
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binary
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Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
4 ott 26, 13:24 UTC1 gen 27, 13:16 UTC
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Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?
KalshiWill a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?
KalshiMore than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Allegedly, a worker at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute was exposed to plague.
- This resolves YES if a reliable western source claims that at least 100 people were infected as a result of this incident by the end of 2026.
- This resolves YES even if the infection turns out to not actually be plague.
